Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
