Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
