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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime underperformers rising together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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