War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".